Core Universe Analysis for 16-Sep-2019
Symbol Description Instr Strict 3-Slp Simple RelStr CMF NH/NL Total
BND Total Bond Market ETF UP UP UP 1.1:0.6 DN 0/6 2.0
EEM Emerging Markets ETF DN DN =UP= -1.0:0.6 UP 7/0 1.0
EFA Euro/Aust/Asia ETF DN «X» UP -0.4:0.6 UP 7/0 2.0
GLD Gold ETF UP UP UP 3.7:0.6 DN 1/6 2.0
ILF Latin America ETF DN DN DN -2.3:0.6 DN 0/0 -6.0
IWM R2000 Index ETF DN X UP -0.5:0.6 UP 18/0 2.0
IYT Transportation ETF DN =UP= UP -0.4:0.6 UP 18/0 3.0
PFF S&P Preferred Stocks ETF UP UP =X= 0.6:0.6 =DN= 0/5 1.0
QQQ NASDAQ 100 Index ETF UP UP UP 0.8:0.6 up 0/0 6.0
SBRA Sabra Health Care REIT ETF UP UP UP 3.5:0.6 UP 47/0 8.0
SLV Silver Trust ETF UP UP UP 5.6:0.6 DN 0/3 3.0
SPY S&P 500 Index ETF UP UP UP 0.7:0.2 UP 0/0 7.0
TLT 20+ Year T-Bond ETF UP UP UP 3.7:0.6 =DN= 0/6 2.0
USMV US Min Volatility ETF UP UP UP 1.6:0.6 DN 0/0 3.0
USO US Oil ETF DN DN «X» -0.9:0.6 =UP= 16/2 0.0
VGK FTSE Europe ETF DN DN UP -0.4:0.6 UP 7/0 1.0
VNQ US Real Estate Sctr ETF UP UP UP 1.9:0.6 up 0/2 6.0
VTI Total Market ETF UP UP UP 0.5:0.6 UP 0/0 6.0
Sector Charts

Data Columns
4. Strict: MTA Strict Test: Grn=Up, Red=Down, Gry=Undef       8. CMF: 20-day Money Flow: Grn=Up, Red=Down, Gry=Flat
5. 3-Slp: MTA 3-Slope Test: Grn=Up, Red=Down, Gry=Undef       9. NH/NL: Weeks since price was this high or this low
6. Simple: MTA Simple Test: Grn=Up, Red=Down, Gry=Undef     10. Total: Aggregate score for columns 4 through 9.
7. RelStr: Slp of ETF/Slp of SPX. Grn=Up, Red=Down, Gry=Undef        

Column Details

Strict

The MTA (Macro-Trend Analyzer) employs 3 moving averages. When the fast average is on top, the medium average is in the middle, and the slow average is on the bottom, then the MTA "Strict Test" will indicate a rising trend. When the fast average is on the bottom, the medium average is in the middle, and the slow average is on the top, the Strict Test will signal a falling trend.

The row of dots second from the top of the MTA chart shows the state of the Strict Test. The background color of the cell in the summary table will be green when the state is UP. It will be red when the state is DOWN. If the state is undefined the background color will be gray.

Recent changes in the indicator are flagged with special characters. Double angle brackets around the cell text ("«UP»") mean the indicator changed state today. Dashes around the text ("–DN–") mean the state changed yesterday. Equal signs around the text ("=UP=") mean it changed two days ago. Equivalence signs ("≡DN≡") mean it changed three days ago. [To remember the scheme, think Chinese numeric characters: one bar (dash) is one day; two bars (equal sign) is two days; three bars (equivalence sign) is three days.]


3-Slp
The 3-Slope Test for the MTA is generally more responsive than the Strict Test. It signals an advance when all 3 averages are rising and it signals a decline when all 3 averages are falling.

The 3 rows of dots at the bottom of the MTA chart are used to show the slopes of the three averages used in 3-Slope Test. The upper row shows the slope of the fast average. The middle row shows the slope of the medium average. The lowest row shows the slope of the slow average. Green dots indicate a rising trend. Yellow dots show rising but in transition. Red dots mean a falling trend, and orange dots indicate falling but in transition.

Recent changes in the indicator are flagged with special characters. Double angle brackets around the cell text ("«UP»") mean the indicator changed state today. Dashes around the text ("–DN–") mean the state changed yesterday. Equal signs around the text ("=UP=") mean it changed two days ago. Equivalence signs ("≡DN≡") mean it changed three days ago.


Simple
This column shows the state of the MTA "Simple Test". This test is the fastest of the three MTA tests and it is primarily driven by the slope of the medium average.

The Simple Test changes direction more frequently than either the Strict Test or the 3-Slope Test. It is appropriate for swing trading or for providing perspective on the other two MTA tests.

Recent changes in the indicator are flagged with special characters. Double angle brackets around the cell text ("«UP»") mean the indicator changed state today. Dashes around the text ("–DN–") mean the state changed yesterday. Equal signs around the text ("=UP=") mean it changed two days ago. Equivalence signs ("≡DN≡") mean it changed three days ago.


RelStr
RelStr is short for "Relative Strength". Relative Strength compares the slope of a security with the slope of a major market index, the SPX. RelStr is not effective with SPY or VTI since they are both highly correlated to SPX.

When the cell background is bright green it means SPX is headed up (or it is a least flat) and the security is moving moving up even faster than the index. Dark green means the stock's slope is rising but either the stock's slope is lower than the SPX slope or the SPX slope is not rising. Bright red means the market is either flat or headed down and the security is declining faster than the index. Dull red means the stock's slope is falling but either the stock's slope is not falling as rapidly as the SPX slope or the SPX slope is not falling.

Relative Strength lets you see which securities are climbing faster than the market during an advance, or which securities are falling faster than the market during a decline. When the market is rising, it makes sense to keep your money in the securities that are rising faster than the market as a whole. When the market is falling it makes sense to short the securities that are falling faster than the market.

NOTE: Since comparing SPY to SPX doesn't really tell us anything, SPY relative strength is measured by comparing SPY to RSP, the Guggenheim Unweighted SPX Index. [Thanks to Marc Chaikin for that tip.]


CMF
CMF is the Chaikin Money Flow. It has been multiplied by 10 to make it fit on the same scale as the Relative Strength indicator on the charts. If the CMF is greater than 0.2 then the cell background will be green. If the CMF is less than -0.2, the cell will be red. Otherwise, the background color will be gray.

Marc Chaikin's Money Flow indicator was specifically designed to reveal the actions of the institutional investors. Institutional investors are the big money traders on Wall Street and arguing with them is like trying to swim up stream. However, the CMF does not necessarily have to be above zero before you buy a security. If the CMF is rising and halfway (or more) to the zero line, it may be safe to go long if the other indicators are positive.

If the cell background is bright green it means that CMF is above zero and above the warning (red) line. If the cell background is dark green it means CMF is above zero but below the red line. If the cell color is dark red it means that CMF is below zero but above the red line. And if the cell is bright red, then CMF is below zero and below the red warning line.

Recent changes in the indicator are flagged with special characters. Double angle brackets around the cell text ("«UP»") mean the indicator changed state today. Dashes around the text ("–DN–") mean the state changed yesterday. Equal signs around the text ("=UP=") mean it changed two days ago. Equivalence signs ("≡DN≡") mean it changed three days ago.


NH/NL
This column shows the NewHigh/NewLow ratio. The NewHigh is the number of weeks since price was higher than now. The NewLow is the number of weeks since price was lower than now. If the New High number is greater than the New Low + 3, then the background color will be green. If the New Low number is greater than the New High + 3, then the background color will be red. Otherwise, the background color will be gray. Both numbers are capped at 520 (10 years).

If the New High number keeps getting larger and the New Low number stays small (single digits), this is an indication that price is going steadily up. When the New High number is greater than or equal to 52, it means that the effect of historic resistance (previous price action) has been greatly diminished.


Total
Aggregate score for columns 4 through 9. If all six cells are bright green, the total score will be 8. If all six are bright red, the total will be -8.

The Strict column receives a score of 1 if the MTA Strict test is UP or a -1 if the it test is DN. The 3-Slp column receives a 1 for an UP or a -1 for DN. The Simple column also gets 1 for an UP or -1 for DN.

RelStr receives a 1 if the security is rising ahead of the SPX and a 2 if the SPX is also rising. It receives a -1 if the security is is falling faster than the SPX and a -2 if the SPX is falling, too.

CMF receives a score of 2 if the cell background is bright green (CMF is above zero and above the red line). CMF receives a 1 if the cell background is dark green (CMF is above zero but below the red line). If the cell color is dark red, CMF gets a -1. If it's bright red, CMF gets a -2.

The background color of the Total cell will be green if the total score is 6 or more. The cell color will be red if the score is -6 or less.